歌尔可转债怎么样配图,仅供参考
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歌尔股份(002241)发行过两只可转债,分别为歌尔转债(128009)(2014年发行,已退市)和歌尔转2(128112)(2020年发行,存续中)。以下从历史表现、条款设计、风险收益特征等方面综合分析:
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# 一、歌尔转债(128009)历史表现
1. 发行与赎回情况?
?? - 2014年12月发行,规模25亿元,初始转股价26.43元/股,转股期为2015年6月19日至2020年12月11日。
?? - 因正股表现优异,2017年5月触发赎回条款(连续30个交易日中有15日收盘价高于转股价130%),于2017年6月30日提前赎回,最终退市时仅剩余81.78万元未转股,大部分投资者通过转股获利。
2. 价格波动与收益?
?? - 歌尔转债历史最高价达237元(2017年),退市时价格约146元,期间因正股上涨和转股溢价率变化,投资者若持有至赎回可获得较高收益。
?? - 但若在强赎前未及时转股,可能面临价格腰斩风险(如2022年因客户事件导致股价暴跌时,可转债价格一度大幅下跌)。
---
# 二、歌尔转2(128112)当前情况
1. 发行与条款设计?
?? - 2020年6月发行,规模40亿元,初始转股价23.27元/股,转股期为2020年12月18日至2026年6月11日。
?? - 条款亮点:?
???? - 债底保护强:AA 评级,YTM为2.31%,债底约90.21元。?
???? - 赎回条款较宽松:连续15个交易日收盘价高于转股价130%可触发赎回。?
???? - 下修条款:需股东大会通过,条件为“15/30,85%”。
2. 市场表现与估值?
?? - 上市首日平价溢价率约17%,开盘价130元,最高触及172元,属于“大肉签”。
?? - 截至2025年3月,歌尔股份股价26.78元,对应转股价值约115元(转股价23.27元),溢价率约-5.5%,处于合理区间。
---
# 三、风险与机会分析
1. 正股驱动因素?
?? - 行业前景:歌尔股份为消费电子龙头,布局TWS耳机、VR/AR、智能硬件等领域,受益于AI硬件需求增长。?
?? - 客户依赖:苹果为第一大客户(占比超60%),存在订单波动风险(如2022年因砍单导致业绩下滑)。?
?? - 自研能力:子公司歌尔微芯片自研率不足30%,依赖英飞凌等供应商,可能影响毛利率。
2. 财务风险?
?? - 公司资产负债率长期高于行业均值(54%-61%),短期偿债压力较大(2024年9月末短期借款106.99亿元)。?
?? - 分拆歌尔微上市或缓解资金压力,但需关注融资进展。
3. 可转债策略建议?
?? - 持有转股:若看好歌尔股份长期增长(如VR/AR业务放量),可持有至转股,当前转股溢价率低,安全性较高。?
?? - 波段操作:关注消费电子行业周期及苹果订单动态,利用股价波动进行交易。?
?? - 警惕强赎:若正股连续上涨触发赎回条款,需及时转股或卖出,避免价格下跌风险。
---
# 四、总结
歌尔可转债历史表现优异,但需结合正股基本面与市场环境动态评估:?
- 歌尔转债(已退市):曾因正股上涨实现高收益,但强赎风险需警惕。?
- 歌尔转2(存续中):债底保护性强,当前估值合理,适合长期持有或波段操作,建议关注消费电子行业复苏及公司自研能力提升进展。?
风险提示:大客户订单波动、汇率风险、自研芯片进展不及预期等可能影响正股表现。